We have recently seen the Wall Street Cheat Sheet (Psychology of a Market Cycle) being passed around all over the place in relation to the current crypto bear market.
During this bear market we have gone through a lot of phases, in fact every bull and bear market over the last 10 years crypto has gone through phases and cycles. The Wall St Cheat Sheet (Psychology of a Market Cycle) being passed around so much effectively tells us the exact same story.
Interestingly no matter how much we wish it were not true, our beloved cryptos have so far followed the classic stock market cycles. The Elliott Wave, the parabolic highs, the retracements, the crashes, etc. What we are seeing right now (December 2018) as we look to try and find the bottom of the market is a lot of people referring back to these charts in public, lots of YouTube videos and articles with high profile people all bringing up these classics.
The Wall Street Cheat Sheet (Psychology of a Market Cycle):
So what can we make of all of this? Is trading and are all financial markets really that predictable?
I am no expert technical analyst and will never pretend to be. All I can do is look back in hindsight as well as looking around me as to what is currently happening right now. Certainly the past can be made to fit perfectly into these cycles. Crypto Twitter sentiment is also beautifully following the Wall St Cheat Sheet right down to the anger phase we have seen in Q3 and Q4 of 2018. But does that mean that we can expect the whole positive phase to start off again in 2019? I would not dare to make that prediction, of course there will be a rally but how low do we go before that happens?
Is the herd mentality to blame for the boom and bust patterns?
We all know people who bought the hype in late 2017, hell you may be one yourself. We also all know people who are selling right now either due to the panic phase we are in or simply because financial constraints or over stretching on the way down means capital needs to be found from somewhere and there is no other option than to cut losses. One of my colleagues at work sold last week citing a complete loss of faith in crypto. The herd mentality certainly plays a large part in these market cycles.
Are Wall Street, the banks, the media and / or governments to blame for this current bear market?
Given the fact that Wall Street and other major global banks and financial forces have been spending years and countless millions preparing for their entry into the cryptocurrency space I think it is a pretty safe bet that they have been using their Wall Street Cheat Sheet for years in playing the crypto market. In such a young market and with so very few cryptos actually having a use case let alone a working product this market has and still is ripe for manipulation. With little by way of regulations to stop market manipulation it has been an absolute field day for very early entrants and for powerful players to reap the rewards and crush the naive. Always look at what they are doing and not just what they are saying!
I don’t think I am alone in also looking at the governments as a huge contributing factor in the current bear market. Governments are traditionally slow in recognising emerging markets and technologies. They don’t have the interest, skills and knowledge in house and it takes time for them to realise what is going on. It is no surprise then to have seen the Q1 2018 mass of warnings, bans and negative press. The cryptocurrency market grew at an astonishing rate and the governments were not ready, not prepared and didn’t have any skin in the game. This could not be allowed to carry on till they were ready to capitalise (and protect).
What about the media then? Well we know that the media loves big stories (positive or negative it doesn’t matter as long as they get your attention). The media follows trends of course but let us not forget that the media is also owned by some very powerful corporations. Conflicts of interest are rife in the media (mainstream media as well as crypto media of course). And the media is the number one driving force behind the herd mentality, and in many respects, the Wall street cheat sheet phases.
Teach yourself at least a bare minimum knowledge of the market technicals
I could carry on writing for hours about the various factors in play in any market but as I say, I am not an authority in these matters. What I do see (and hear) is that there are powerful and influential players who are either experts in market technicals or are employing teams of experts. The markets are far too orchestrated for this not to be the case so if you are serious about investing do your fundamental research as well as getting a basic understanding of the Elliott Wave, Fibonacci sequences and basic technical analysis as this will help you out in the long term.
Everything is coming together nicely for some big winners and some bigger losers
- How low are we going to go? Nobody knows though there are plenty of opinions out there.
- Is Bitcoin going to remain at number 1 or is a new king being prepared to be crowned?
- Will any top 25 coin go to zero?
- How many of the thousands of cryptos will die?
- How many are going to see massive gains?
I have none of these answers for you. What I believe is that we will see another massive bull run at some point in the future, but when that will be is anybody’s guess as there is still much left to be put into place before that can happen. Regulations are still not in place for the most part. Big players like SBI and Bakkt keep delaying the launches of their exchanges. Fidelity, Nasdaq and stock exchanges all around the world have not set clear launch dates yet. Bitcoin ETF’s look like they will never be approved. In the meantime massive mining companies are going bust, many crypto related companies and exchanges are exit scamming and the need for individuals, hedge funds and crypto miners to sell to pay their bills remains a massive drain on the market.
Be careful out there, don’t over extend yourself, do your research and good luck to all of us. Bear the Wall Street cheat sheet in mind or not, it’s just another factor for research. Fingers crossed Q1 of 2019 is the start of the positive reversal but I’m not going to bet my house on it. I am balls deep but I haven’t invested more than I can afford to lose even if we drop another 50% or more before the good times return.